El Nino May Increase Heat-Related Deaths Worldwide
The projections cover the period from June 2026, when the current El Nino began, through February 2027.
The Climate Impact Lab estimates that the number of extremely hot days could increase by 44% compared with typical years, with countries having fewer resources to adapt expected to face the greatest impact.
The Sahel region could see an estimated 66,800 additional heat-related deaths between September and February. Southeast Asia may record nearly 39,000 more deaths, while India and Brazil are projected to experience 15,800 and 13,300 additional deaths, respectively.
“This is such a large number that it can be numbing, but it is made up of parents and children, grandparents and neighbors, people going to work, caring for families, and living their lives,” says Michael Greenstone, a co-founder of the Climate Impact Lab
Researchers said tens of thousands of these deaths could potentially be avoided through targeted emergency measures and stronger resilience efforts, including early-warning systems, cooling centers and safeguards for people working outdoors.
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